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The failure of risk management why it's broken and how to fix it
Author
Title
The failure of risk management [electronic resource] : why it's broken and how to fix it / Douglas W. Hubbard.
ISBN
9781119521914
1119521912
9781119522041
1119522048
9781119522027
1119522021
9781119522034
Edition
Second edition.
Publication
Hoboken, New Jersey : Wiley, 2020.
Copyright Notice Date
©2020
Physical Description
1 online resource.
Local Notes
Access is available to the Yale community.
Notes
Includes index.
Electronic reproduction. Hoboken, N.J. Available via World Wide Web.
Description based on online resource; title from digital title page (viewed on March 10, 2020).
Access and use
Access restricted by licensing agreement.
Other formats
Print version: Hubbard, Douglas W., 1962- The failure of risk management Second edition. Hoboken, New Jersey : Wiley, 2020.
Format
Books / Online
Language
English
Added to Catalog
March 31, 2020
Bibliography
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Contents
Intro
Table of Contents
About the Author
Preface
Acknowledgments
PART ONE: An Introduction to the Crisis
CHAPTER 1: Healthy Skepticism for Risk Management
A "COMMON MODE FAILURE"
KEY DEFINITIONS: RISK MANAGEMENT AND SOME RELATED TERMS
WHAT FAILURE MEANS
SCOPE AND OBJECTIVES OF THIS BOOK
NOTES
CHAPTER 2: A Summary of the Current State of Risk Management
A SHORT AND ENTIRELY-TOO-SUPERFICIAL HISTORY OF RISK
CURRENT STATE OF RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE ORGANIZATION
CURRENT RISKS AND HOW THEY ARE ASSESSED
NOTES
CHAPTER 3: How Do We Know What Works?
ANECDOTE: THE RISK OF OUTSOURCING DRUG MANUFACTURING
WHY IT'S HARD TO KNOW WHAT WORKS
AN ASSESSMENT OF SELF-ASSESSMENTS
POTENTIAL OBJECTIVE EVALUATIONS OF RISK MANAGEMENT
WHAT WE MAY FIND
NOTES
CHAPTER 4: Getting Started: A Simple Straw Man Quantitative Model
A SIMPLE ONE-FOR-ONE SUBSTITUTION
THE EXPERT AS THE INSTRUMENT
A QUICK OVERVIEW OF "UNCERTAINTY MATH"
ESTABLISHING RISK TOLERANCE
SUPPORTING THE DECISION: A RETURN ON MITIGATION
MAKING THE STRAW MAN BETTER
NOTE
PART TWO: Why It's Broken
CHAPTER 5: The "Four Horsemen" of Risk Management: Some (Mostly) Sincere Attempts to Prevent an Apocalypse
ACTUARIES
WAR QUANTS: HOW WORLD WAR II CHANGED RISK ANALYSIS FOREVER
ECONOMISTS
MANAGEMENT CONSULTING: HOW A POWER TIE AND A GOOD PITCH CHANGED RISK MANAGEMENT
COMPARING THE HORSEMEN
MAJOR RISK MANAGEMENT PROBLEMS TO BE ADDRESSED
NOTES
CHAPTER 6: An Ivory Tower of Babel: Fixing the Confusion about Risk
THE FRANK KNIGHT DEFINITION
KNIGHT'S INFLUENCE IN FINANCE AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT
A CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING DEFINITION
RISK AS EXPECTED LOSS
DEFINING RISK TOLERANCE
DEFINING PROBABILITY
ENRICHING THE LEXICON
NOTES
CHAPTER 7: The Limits of Expert Knowledge: Why We Don't Know What We Think We Know about Uncertainty
THE RIGHT STUFF: HOW A GROUP OF PSYCHOLOGISTS MIGHT SAVE RISK ANALYSIS
MENTAL MATH: WHY WE SHOULDN'T TRUST THE NUMBERS IN OUR HEADS
"CATASTROPHIC" OVERCONFIDENCE
THE MIND OF "ACES": POSSIBLE CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF OVERCONFIDENCE
INCONSISTENCIES AND ARTIFACTS: WHAT SHOULDN'T MATTER DOES
ANSWERS TO CALIBRATION TESTS
NOTES
CHAPTER 8: Worse Than Useless: The Most Popular Risk Assessment Method and Why It Doesn't Work
A FEW EXAMPLES OF SCORES AND MATRICES
DOES THAT COME IN "MEDIUM"?: WHY AMBIGUITY DOES NOT OFFSET UNCERTAINTY
UNINTENDED EFFECTS OF SCALES: WHAT YOU DON'T KNOW CAN HURT YOU
DIFFERENT BUT SIMILAR-SOUNDING METHODS AND SIMILAR BUT DIFFERENT-SOUNDING METHODS
NOTES
CHAPTER 9: Bears, Swans and Other Obstacles to Improved Risk Management
ALGORITHM AVERSION AND A KEY FALLACY
ALGORITHMS VERSUS EXPERTS: GENERALIZING THE FINDINGS
A NOTE ABOUT BLACK SWANS
Subjects
Also listed under
Wiley InterScience (Online service)
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