Cover
Title Page
Copyright Page
Contents
Acknowledgments
About the Author
Preface
Chapter 1 An Unconventional Trade Feud
1.1 Thanos and Trump
1.2 What Causes the Trade War?
1.2.1 Trump's Unilateralism
1.2.2 A Stubbornly Large China Deficit
1.2.3 Unfair Trade Practices
1.2.4 "China Dream" vs. "America First"
1.3 The Novelty of This Trade War
1.3.1 The Art of Being Unpredictable
1.3.2 Breaking the Bulk in Tranches
1.3.3 A Battle for Technology
1.3.4 Leverage Geopolitical Issues
1.4 Economic Impacts and Consequences
1.4.1 Slowdown in Trade and Investment
1.4.2 Relocation of Production Base
1.4.3 Negative Impact on US Business and Consumers
1.5 Trade War and Deglobalization
Annex A: China's Belt and Road Initiative
Annex B: Official Statements from the US and China
Annex C: Major Timeline of the Trade War
Chapter 2 Trade Imbalances and the Greenback
2.1 The Missing Link between Trade and Currency
2.2 Stubbornly Persistent US Trade Deficits
2.2.1 Stylized Facts of the US Trade Balance
2.2.2 The Economics of Trade Balance
2.3 Is the Exchange Rate to Blame?
2.3.1 Currency Revaluation
2.3.2 Exchange Rate in Trade Talks
2.4 Exorbitant Privilege of the Dollar
2.4.1 Triffin Dilemma
2.4.2 Quantitative Easing
2.5 Dollar Recycling and the Global Saving Glut
2.5.1 Petrodollar Recycling
2.5.2 China's Factory-Dollar Recycling
Chapter 3 Deglobalization Prompts De-Dollarization
3.1 Anti-Multilateralism and Anti-Sovereign Movement
3.2 The Globalization Cycle
3.2.1 Globalization 1820-1914
3.2.2 Postwar Globalization
3.3 Currency Globalization
3.3.1 Financial Integration and the Hubs
3.3.2 Currency Standard and Trade Bloc
3.4 Financial Deglobalization
3.4.1 Capital Mobility and Financial Crises
3.4.2 Financial Crises and Populism
3.5 End of Cycle: De-Dollarization
3.5.1 The Transition Regime
3.5.2 De-Dollarization and the Trade War
Chapter 4 China-US Financial Decoupling
4.1 Trade War and the Yuan
4.2 The Yuan in the Monetary Policy Context
4.2.1 Reforms in the Transitional Period 1979-2004
4.2.2 A Tightly Managed Floating Regime 2005-2015
4.2.3 Managed Floating Post "811"
4.2.4 Currency Outlook and Reforms
4.3 Globalizing the RMB in the Deglobalizing World
4.3.1 De-Dollarization
4.3.2 RMB Internationalization
4.4 Reserve Diversification10
4.4.1 China's Holding of US Dollar Assets
4.4.2 Alternative Assets
Chapter 5 A Race on the Digital Turf
5.1 Reform and Technology Independence
5.2 China's Structural Challenges
5.2.1 Demographic Challenge and Overleveraging
5.2.2 Supply-Side Structural Reforms
5.3 China's Digital Economy
5.3.1 Digitalization and Structural Rebalancing
5.3.2 China's Tech Policy
5.4 The Tech Rush and the Little Chips