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Blindside how to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics
Title
Blindside [electronic resource] : how to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics / Francis Fukuyama, editor.
ISBN
9780815729907 (cloth : alk. paper)
0815729901 (cloth : alk. paper)
Published
Washington, D.C. : Brookings Institution Press, c2007.
Physical Description
vi, 198 p. ; 24 cm.
Local Notes
Access is available to the Yale Community.
Notes
"An American Interest Book."
Electronic reproduction. Palo Alto, Calif. : ebrary, 2008. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ebrary affiliated libraries.
Access and use
Access restricted by licensing agreement.
Summary
"Focuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-probability events. Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating necessary resources. Pinpoints failures---institutional and personal---that allowed events to surprise leaders and examines philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. Discusses low-probability, high-impact contingencies in various sectors"--Provided by publisher.
Format
Books / Online
Language
English
Added to Catalog
March 03, 2008
Bibliography
Includes bibliographical references (p. [173]-182) and index.
Contents
The challenges of uncertainty: an introduction / Francis Fukuyama
Thinking about catastrophe / Richard A. Posner
Cases: looking back
Slow surprise: the dynamics of technology synergy / David Landes
U.S. intelligence estimates of Soviet collapse: reality and perception / Bruce Berkowitz
Econoshocks: the East Asian crisis case / David Hale
Cases: looking ahead
The once and future DARPA / William Bonvillian
Fueled again? In search of energy security / Gal Luft and Anne Korin
Emerging infectious diseases: are we prepared? / Scott Barrett
Forecasting
Ahead of the curve: anticipating strategic surprise / Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall
Can scenarios help policymakers be both bold and careful? / Robert Lempert
Innovation and adaptation: IT examples / Mitchell Waldrop
What could be
Cassandra vs. Pollyanna : a debate between James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook
Global discontinuities : a discussion with Owen Harries, Itamar Rabinovich, Niall Ferguson, and Scott Barrett
American scenarios
A discussion with Walter Russell Mead, Eliot Cohen, Anne Applebaum, Ruth Wedgwood, Bernard-Henry Levy, Peter Schwartz, Josef Joffe, and Francis Fukuyama
Afterword / Francis Fukuyama
Contributors
Index.
Also listed under
ebrary, Inc.
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