Moscow in the Donbas : command, control, crime and the Minsk peace process / Donald N. Jensen.

Rome, Italy : Research Division, NATO Defense College, 2017.

16 pages ; 30 cm.

"Both sides in the war in Ukraine have demonstrated an ability to control the level of violence in the eastern part of the country, Alexander Hug, a senior official with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), announced at a press conference in Brussels on 18 October 2016, 'There is clear evidence they have the ability to command and control their forces or armed formations on both sides because otherwise it would not be possible that you could calm down a situation where you regularly have thousands of violations.' US officials agree. They have repeatedly indicated that Moscow has 'enormous leverage' over the pro-Russian fighters. If the Russians want to stop ... the violence, of course, they can do it,' a US State Department representative said in March 2016, 'and they, in fact, have to do it.' On the other hand there also is circumstantial evidence that Moscow may not control all the fighting on the ground. In a recent report, a Dutch-led criminal investigation team published strong evidence that in July 2014 Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 was downed by a Russian-made surface-to-air Buk missile fired from territory controlled by pro-Moscow fighters in eastern Ukraine. However, the report stopped short of saying whether the order to fire came from pro-Russia commanders acting independently, the Russian military personnel stationed nearby, or Moscow. The Kremlin has denied any responsibility for the incident, though recently leaked emails published in the German news media underscore the extent tot which Moscow spin doctors managed the media response of pro-Russia fighters after the tragedy. This paper seeks to answer the questions raised by these contradictory official statements: Who are the so-called separatist fighters? To what extent, and how does Russia manage them? Are they an obstacle to a peace settlement? It will do so by exploring the security, political and military relationships of those fighters to Russia and to each other and how those relationship have changed over time. It also will examine the policy implications of those relationships for the Minsk peace process and NATO as well as the political impact inside the Russian Federation of the returning fighters"--Pages 1-2.

English

March 16, 2018

Includes bibliographical references.

NATO Defense College. Research Division, issuing body.